A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
